Economic entity investment efficiency method under conditions of uncertainty, taking into account the time factor

Abstract

Introduction. In modern currently uncertain world, investments should be viewed through the prism of time factors, such as the time value of money, inflation, changes in the market environment and strategic goals. Understanding the time dynamics of investments helps investors make more substantiated financial decisions, optimize their strategy and minimize risks. The uncertainty factor in investing is one of the key aspects affecting investment decisions. Uncertainty can arise from various sources and have a significant impact on the profitability and risk of investments. Assessing the investment efficiency of an economic entity in uncertain conditions requires an integrated approach that will take into account various factors, including economic risks, time horizons and the dynamics of changes in the external environment. In this case, it is necessary to develop a methodology for a comprehensive assessment of investment attractiveness.

Materials and methods. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study was the scientific literature, as well as scientific publications on management issues and methods of assessing the investment activities of an economic entity, scientific and practical articles on a comprehensive assessment of investment activities. An analysis of methods for modeling investment efficiency under uncertainty period by foreign authors (Wilson R., Watkins J.J., Xo'jamurodov A., Esanboyev F., Abidxadjaev U., Karimov M., Davletov F.) and domestic authors (Shorikov A.F., Butsenko E.V., Higgins R.S., Reimers M., Burkal'tseva D.D., Guk O.A., Filatova O.V., Bondar A.P.) was carried out. Such methods as scenario analysis, the Monte Carlo method, and fuzzy-set control methods were analyzed.

Results. As a result of the analysis of investment activity assessment methods, it was concluded that the combined use of scenario analysis, the Monte Carlo method and the theory of fuzzy sets will allow an economic entity to give a comprehensive idea of possible investment results. These methods will allow taking into account uncertainties, assessing risks and making more informed decisions in a dynamic and complex market. The integration of these approaches can improve the accuracy of investment efficiency assessment and increase the chances of successful investment management. The paper defines the criteria for assessing the level of investment potential, and develops a methodology for assessing the investment efficiency of an economic entity based on the method of the prototype of a fuzzy set with a binary relation and the method of fuzzy Boolean variables.

Discussion. The article may be useful for financial analysts, project managers, strategic planners, banks and credit institutions, stakeholders, government agencies, and consulting companies that provide advice to their clients on investment and risk management. The proposed methodology will help all stakeholders make more informed decisions, minimize risks, and optimize the resources used.