REGIONAL INDUSTRY IMPORT SUBSTITUTION INNOVATION PROJECTS EFFICIENCY ASSESSMENT

Abstract

Introduction. Import substitution has become a priority area of state development. Although the idea of developing domestic production to reduce dependence on imports is not new and was discussed back in the 2000s, its implementation was interfered by favorable conditions for foreign trade and the active presence of foreign capital. In the current political and economic climate, factors that significantly accelerated import substitution processes have come to the fore. On the government part, these include programs to support the key industries and protectionist measures. 2014 is considered to be the turning point, when external pressure became a determinant. It was then that large-scale systematic programs were launched, primarily aimed at strengthening food security.

Materials and methods. Unlike existing studies that rely on statistics, this paper considers the opinions of companies implementing innovations for import substitution.

The study analyzes two ways innovations influence import substitution: directly reducing import dependence and indirectly through expanding sales markets. The analysis is based on the primary statistical data from 2024: Form No. 1-Technology (for assessing import dependence) and Form No. 4-Innovation (for market analysis).

Efficiency has been assessed basing on organizations that have demonstrated significant impact from technology implementation. The study also takes into account the impact of sanctions on technology transfer. The analysis covers Russian regions.

Results and conclusions. The share of companies reporting an impact from import substitution varies by region, from 51.0% (Yakutia) to 15.0% (Chukotka), with a national average of 33.7%, revealing a significant territorial imbalance. Innovations demonstrate greater effectiveness in expanding sales markets (53.0% on average across Russia), but with significant regional variations – from 75.0% in North Ossetia to 14.9% in the Magadan Region. At the same time, the sanctions factor has a moderate impact: only 22.6% of companies nationwide consider restrictions a significant barrier. The Belgorod Region (32.7%) and St. Petersburg (32.5%) are most dependent on technology imports, while the Altai Republic (10.5%) and the Crimea (11.8%) are least dependent.

Discussion. The analysis of 2020–2024 shows that only a third of organizations report significant impact from implementing import substitution technologies. Despite growth, particularly in 2022, the current level indicates challenges in project implementation. Statistical analysis revealed no correlation between the effectiveness of import substitution technologies and GRP per capita (r=0.05), demonstrating the limitations of purely economic assessment methods. Market expansion shows stable trends with less pronounced regional differentiation, although Far Eastern regions consistently demonstrate lower results. Sanctions pose a significant barrier for no more than 25% of organizations (up to a maximum of 32.7%).